Archive for the ‘By Event’ Category

Istanbul: the perfect European retail destination for the ICSC

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2014

Brown James

Posted by: James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research & Consulting
JLL EMEA Research

 

 

As the annual International Council for Shopping Centres (ICSC) European conference takes place this week in Istanbul, it is worth reflecting on one of the world’s newest global cities. Often portrayed as being located at a key crossroads between the east and west, Istanbul is a fascinating mix of two vastly differing cultures. This divergence is clearly echoed in the city’s retail market, where the centuries old Grand Bazaar sits alongside some of the most impressive new shopping centres in the world.

As we highlight in JLL’s Istanbul Retail City Profile, the retail market is revolutionising at a great speed. We are witnessing the development of some world class retail destinations, which are playing host to top international retailers, on both the European and Asian sides of Istanbul. On the European side, the preeminent commercial scheme is now the $2.5bn JLL let and managed Zorlu Center, which opened late last year. On the Asian side, the Galerie Lafayette anchored Emaar Square development, also leased by JLL, is scheduled to open shortly, creating a new landmark downtown destination.

Zorlu 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

“The JLL leased and managed Zorlu Center”

Istanbul is a regional powerhouse, partly a result of two trends that we have identified that are redefining the global retail market. The first, urbanisation, is a truly global phenomenon. While half of the world’s fastest-growing large cities are in Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East are also witnessing rapid urbanisation, with Istanbul at the forefront. In 1960, the city had a population of one million, today it is over 13 million!

Istanbul also looks set to benefit from a second trend, multi-speed economic growth. Turkey, along with Russia, looks set to outperform the rest of Europe economically in the medium term. The expanding macro-economy, favourable demographics and rapidly-growing middle class are driving the development of Turkey’s, and specifically, Istanbul’s retail market, which looks set to remain an attractive destination for international retailers, real estate investors and developers alike. As always, however, where there is opportunity, risk is never too far away, as highlighted by the recent geo-political instability in the region.

But despite, and maybe even because of these risks, Istanbul remains the perfect place for the ICSC to host its annual European Conference. The conference brings the biggest names in the shopping centre industry together, to discuss the latest challenges and trends facing the European retail market. I, for one, cannot think of a better place to witness these trends first hand than in the cultural and retail melting pot that is Istanbul.

James Brown is JLL’s Head of European Retail Research. He advises international investors and occupiers on their retail real estate strategy across Europe.

Connect with me on LinkedIn

Follow JLL Europe Retail on Twitter 

RECON 2013: Leaving Las Vegas

Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

james brownPosted by: James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

 

 

Four days and four nights in Las Vegas for our JLL Global Retail Agency Board and ICSC RECon and I have made four observations.

 

  • First, the US is an amazingly dynamic and innovative retail market, with a vast, untapped supply of retail and leisure brands and formats that have yet to explore new territories.
  • Second, global is the key theme that dominates recent conferences I have attended. Against the backdrop of mixed economic growth prospects and therefore both risk and opportunity, the globalisation of retail appears to have accelerated.
  • Third, our JLL global network of retail expertise and its potential to advise global retailers is what it is all about. ICSC RECon Vegas has assisted in building stronger internal and client relationships and in creating new opportunities.
  • Finally, Las Vegas has exceeded expectations and has provided everything we needed to get us through the four days. It is truly unique, but it’s now time to head home.

 

Two deals for day two and taking off at Gatwick

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Gould, Victoria Posted by: Victoria Gould
Director, Retail Agency UK

I start the main day at BCSC with a hearty breakfast, a bucket of coffee and the exciting news that we are on the verge of another two great brands for Standard Life Investments and Shearer Property Group’s Parkway Newbury – the third and final shopping centre to open in 2011.

So far so good – Parkway is bucking the shopping centre leasing market trend because it is the right size and scale for a market town and provides the appropriate blended tenant mix to meet the demands of the affluent demographic profile of West Berkshire. The future development pipeline is looking bleak – funding constraints, rapidly fluctuating capital values and an uncertain occupier market mean that only a handful of schemes on the horizon in 2000 will actually come to fruition. 2012 is looking very desolate, with the Land Securities development, Leeds Trinity being the bright spot of 2013.

We are looking at creative routes to providing new market channels and I am buzzing with news of our latest instruction – we are strategic and leasing advisors to the new owners of Gatwick Airport. I could bore you senseless with the facts and figures in terms of footfall, dwell time, number of passengers through security etc, but what retailers want to know (if they are not used to airport retailing) is what densities can they achieve and what is the best trading format to achieve and exceed these densities. Retailers that already trade from airports make out that it is a very complicated process and only specialist operators can actually make it work – this is a fallacy – they are just trying to keep one of retail ‘s best kept secrets -  [ it is not hard and  ] there is a huge captive audience with money to spend on products  and  services that they probably wouldn’t normally buy  or  use. Airports are the shopping centres of the future and we can’t wait to get started!

BCSC 2011 – have you packed your umbrellas?

Monday, September 19th, 2011

Guy Grainger Jones Lang LaSallePosted by: Guy Grainger
Head of UK Retail

Leaving a sunny London this morning, I was prompted to remember an umbrella lest we forget the guaranteed rain we always experience in Manchester for BCSC. The dates changed but the weather hasn’t! Couldn’t find any JLL Brollies in Warwick Street so I’ll be making a dash for it.

First chance for our new enlarged team to impress. Our client dinner on Tuesday is over subscribed so it should be lively. We are hosting a Retail 2020 debate tomorrow with Jeremy Collins and Andrew Jones as our guest speakers. Expecting the latter to be very vocal about over hyped book values and we may even get controversial by giving a house view on how much of the existing retail stock we believe is obsolescent.

Time to face up to some of the challenges ahead so we can help bring about some regeneration!

Will keep you posted

How about Turkey….high return, low risk ?

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Dr. Kıvanç ErmanPosted by: Dr. Kıvanç Erman
Director, Capital Markets & Advisory
Jones Lang LaSalle Turkey

As you may be aware, Turkish Real Estate markets have been subdued for the last three years. 

Since the beginning of the economic crisis, we have been arguing that Turkey will be able to profit from this turmoil as we are the only country in Europe which did not spend a penny on the banking system. In 2009, when the crisis was much deeper, the Turkish retail sector has seen a net real growth of 20% with projects delayed but not cancelled. Turkish banks had piles of cash and nowhere to put it, therefore we did not have a cash squeeze either. Although our stated prime yield (speculative of course) was 8% for retail & offices, we are ready to bring it down to 7.5% in the first half of 2011 and most probably to 7% at the year end. Thus, in such an environment, it is expected to have a huge interest from the international investor, looking for a high return / lesser risk.

Whilst I arrived in MIPIM with a few spare slots in my diary, inevitably I ended up with no spare time left due to speculative client meetings. I observed a huge demand from international institutions, not only for existing schemes but also for developments as well. This MIPIM, I think the Turkish team met the most possible number of clients, local & international. Zorlu’s sponsorship of the opening cocktail party was a Turkish team success, namely down to our Chairman Avi Alkas, and this was an important event to make people remember Istanbul & Turkey.

It was not only the Turkish team who promoted Turkey but also our Pan- European Capital Markets team, in particular Jeremy Eddy as well as our Retail CEO Robert Bonwell. We all worked together to illustrate to international investors that Turkey has changed and is now similar to a unicorn in that you don’t believe in its existence and it is something you can only dream of. I personally talked about at least five possible deals that we couldn’t have even dreamt of a year ago and this is hopefully a good sign of what’s to come this year.

Sun, Sea, Sand and Real Estate

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Posted by: James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

What could be better? All in all a good week at MIPIM. Cautions optimism in the air compared to the pre-crash blind optimism that caught so many out.

From an EMEA retail perspective, UK, France, Germany and the Nordics still appear top of investor agendas. However there is no lack of appetite for other EMEA markets, including: Russia, Turkey and even recently troubled North Africa, which for some there is strong belief that once the dust settles significant opportunities still exist.

Warren Buffett said that it is only when the tide goes out that you can see who has been swimming without their trunks on. Well, the tide is now coming back and it is very much ‘back to business’. Availability of debt remains a hurdle and some may not make it back into the water, but those that do are right to remain cautious of where and when to swim.

After a good week it’s time to pack my trunks and head home.

The Russians are coming…… again!

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Jeremy Eddy Jones Lang LaSallePosted By Jeremy Eddy
Director, European Retail Capital Markets
Jones Lang LaSalle

Thank goodness for that. The slightly conservative event that MIPIM has been over the last couple of years has seen a boost again this year with a much larger Russian contingent. This market has its obvious attractions of strong growth and scalable city markets market. Russia has attracted cyclical investment to date from a limited investor base, however we believe this year will see investors taking significant positions in what is Europe’s most accessible BRIC economy. Similarly Turkey, ULI’s number one investment destination in 2011, exhibits the same growth characteristics and a burgeoning real estate sector.

Both these markets appear to have appeal for return driven investors, however the principal challenge in terms of further internationalisation of the market and real delivery on this appeal, would appear to be to avoid the “all that glitters is not gold” analogy. As we have experienced in these markets the biggest tangible risk is vendor related, with irrational pricing decisions, unappealing ownership structures as well as inconsistency in technical and legal aspects, the reward is clearly not without risk.

However we believe that now is the time for these markets, having missed out during the last cycle. More challenging is the business case for the North African markets, many of whom must have taken up the MIPIM early bird booking form! Many projects in this region are now looking extremely ambitious from a financing perspective however we have been reassured that as things settle in these economies and the outlook becomes clearer, occupiers and developers are poised to take advantage of the latent potential of these underdeveloped markets.

The great news is that we have real strength in Russia, Turkey and indeed the MENA region so wherever the action is we will be there.

MIPIM – Let it shine

Monday, March 7th, 2011

Jeremy Eddy Jones Lang LaSallePosted By Jeremy Eddy
Director, European Retail Capital Markets
Jones Lang LaSalle

 Another year and fortunately it does not feel like the last few…

The kick-start to the market was Expo in Munich last October where the confidence of the German market became infectious. In November at MAPIC we really felt that the market was starting to move again, with activity returning across the region. As we have moved into Spring 2011 we now feel we are entering a period of real growth.

I have always wondered if there is a strong correlation between the weather in Cannes and the market performance in the following quarters. I for one will be packing my shades this year and hoping for sunshine.

The Capital Markets team is coming to MIPIM this year with great confidence. We have a significant book of sales that we are delighted our clients have entrusted us with. We see a real depth in the buying community across all buyer types and we have come through the last few years with our teams intact and an unrivalled track record and client base.

At Jones Lang LaSalle we have embraced our clients’ demands for real local expertise coupled with regional and global reach. This year we will have a very strong country representation as well as our unique EMEA Capital Markets and International Capital groups, with delegates from the US, Asia and MENA regions. All of these are backed up by our Global Capital Markets Research team led by Paul Guest.

Be sure to attend one of the events organised in our beach facility and if not let’s catch up on the Croisette. I will be the one wearing the shades hopefully!

Beyond the BRICs

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Stephen Daniels Jones Lang LaSallePosted by: Stephen Daniels
Senior Researcher, Retail Research & Consulting
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

There’s been a lot said about the BRICs in recent years, particularly about retail. It’s true that they are still powerhouses for growth: Russia is back on the map and China continues to grow as only China can. But our experience at the MAPIC conference in Cannes last week highlighted that there’s another world out there, a bigger one, and one that goes beyond the BRICs.

The so-called CIVETS – that’s Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa – were talked about a lot and now retailers and developers alike are gauging which of these have the best prospects for growth. Their economies are maturing and politically they are relatively stable, but the key factor for retail is the projected growth of the middle class. A developing middle class is inimitable news for a retailer looking to develop their business. The middle class love to consume.

In one speech, Debenhams spoke of the importance of these emerging markets to their growth strategy. They already have interests in Vietnam, Malaysia and Iran. Meanwhile, some of the busiest stands at MAPIC were the Egyptian shopping centre developments such as Cleopatra Mall, Cairo… and it wasn’t just the traditionally adorned Cleopatra models that were grabbing the attention! The scheme is a perfect example of what modern shopping centre development is all about: mixed use, superlative service provision and a destination environment. Shopping centres with valet service, free broadband, hotels and even aquatic shows are where retailers want to be. Furthermore, these schemes are slowly correcting the shortage of quality real estate in these markets – a problem which is still an issue but no longer a major barrier. As the real estate continues to improve, better domestic franchise partners for foreign retailers will also emerge, further increasing the appeal of the market.

To us, the message is that significant growth in traditionally core markets will be difficult in these straightened times and the real opportunities will come from further afield. Of course, more mature markets like Poland and Sweden still offer much potential, but don’t be surprised if over the next few years more of our well known brands dip their toes into the Chile’s, Lebanon’s and Turkey’s of this world.

Retail 2020 – The Big MAPIC Debate

Friday, November 19th, 2010

Richard Bloxam Jones Lang LaSallePosted by Richard Bloxam
Director, European Retail Capital Markets
Jones Lang LaSalle

As MAPIC entered day three with the sunshine trying to breakthrough it was time for the Jones Lang LaSalle Retail2020 panel discussion.

The debate was kicked off with a film star performance from Guy Granger – befitting a truly packed auditorium (standing room only for late arrivals).  Guy cantered through three chapters of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Retail2020 programme: Easy Shopping, End of Silent Retailing and Going Beyond Retail.

This set the scene for our high calibre panellists to debate some of the changes we expect the shopper, retailer and real estate owner to face over the next 10 years.

The panel included luminaries from the world of retail – Scott Abbey (Footlocker Europe), Richard Collyer (Abercrombie and Fitch), Marcus Wild (SES Spar European Shopping Centres and ICSC), Josip Kardun (ECE) and John van Haaren (Corio).  My job was to facilitate the debate and get the panellists to proffer their opinions – of which there were many.

The discussion was lively: do fashion retailers see augmented reality as genuine driver of sales? Will retailers pay more rent for centres investing in experiential environments and technology? Is ECE going to role out its Cat Show crowd pleaser in Lodz Europe-wide?  And most importantly would Abercrombie introduce a new comfort fit shirt range for the larger shopper?

Audience participation was lively and at this early stage in our Retail2020 programme made it clear that they believed the retail real estate industry is yet to truly embrace technological change.  That Social Media is going to become essential in reaching customers for both retailers and landlords.  And finally that despite the changing environment, landlords’ drive for short-term returns is going to restrict long-term performance.

All in all a really good debate – lots of positive feedback from the audience afterwards.  It was a great reminder that if you blend a truly exciting and challenging topic together with exceptional expertise on the panel you cannot fail to have an entertaining, informative and engaging discussion.